Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cavaliers @ Eagles UVA @ BC

VIRGINIA

CAVALIERSUVA

17-3  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 1:30 PM ET
Conte Forum
View Odds Details →

BOSTON COLLEGE

EAGLESBC

9-11  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
CAVALIERS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Boston College)
CavaliersUVA (-3.5) 0 EaglesBC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

3.6%

Eagles Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BC -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BC)

UVA By 1-7 points

2.7%

UVA By 8-14 points

0.5%

BC By 1-7 points

10.7%

BC By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
68
VIRGINIA
86
BOSTON COLLEGE
Simulated Score
63
VIRGINIA
58
BOSTON COLLEGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Eagles (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 UVA @ BC 73 - 66
Jan 21, 2025 BC @ UVA 56 - 74
Mar 14, 2024 BC @ UVA 60 - 66
Feb 28, 2024 UVA @ BC 72 - 68
Feb 22, 2023 UVA @ BC 48 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +12.4% more
Boston College: 4.8 vs Virginia: 4.3
Assists (L5) +29.5% more
Virginia: 17.9 vs Boston College: 12.6
Rebounding (L5) +15.4% more
Virginia: 41.4 vs Boston College: 35.0
Free Throw % (L5) +15.2%
Virginia: 76.6% vs Boston College: 61.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UVA Score 68.0 73
BC Score 86.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 34.1 23.0 / 17.0
Assists 12.6 / 17.9 12.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.1 / 4.0 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.5 / 45.5 47.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 61.5 / 76.6 58.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 41.4 33.0 / 39.0
Steals 4.8 / 4.3 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 11.2 10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA Advantage
30-6-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
BC
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA Advantage
17-17-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
BC
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +0.6
BC
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BC
UVA
BC
UVA
ML
61% 19-12
67% 24-12
61% 17-11
72% 26-10
ATS
73% 22-8-1
75% 27-9
61% 17-11
72% 26-10
TTL
61% 19-12
53% 19-17
100% 28-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
bleacherreport 3 hours, 45 minutes ago
UConn Men's Basketball 2026-27 TV Schedule Revealed: Up to Seven…
courant 1 day, 9 hours ago
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 10 hours ago
Ashton Daniels Erupts for Five Rushing Scores as Florida State C…
headtopics 4 days, 22 hours ago
Florida State Crushes Virginia 38-7 as Ashton Daniels Sets Recor…
si 4 days, 22 hours ago