Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Mountaineers BAY @ WVU

BAYLOR

BEARSBAY

11-9  |  Road

63
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 4:00 PM ET
WVU Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

14-7  |  Home

53
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
BEARS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
195.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (West Virginia)
BearsBAY (-3.5) 0 MountaineersWVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

13.6%

Mountaineers Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WVU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WVU)

BAY By 1-7 points

9.3%

BAY By 8-14 points

2.7%

WVU By 1-7 points

21.6%

WVU By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
92
BAYLOR
103
WEST VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
68
BAYLOR
75
WEST VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 195.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 BAY @ WVU 63 - 53
Feb 15, 2025 WVU @ BAY 71 - 74
Feb 17, 2024 BAY @ WVU 94 - 81
Feb 13, 2023 WVU @ BAY 67 - 79
Jan 11, 2023 BAY @ WVU 83 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +6.2%
West Virginia: 69.2% vs Baylor: 63.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
West Virginia: 32.9% vs Baylor: 30.9%
Blocks (L5) +38.1% more
Baylor: 3.2 vs West Virginia: 2.0
Steals (L5) +21.0% more
Baylor: 6.1 vs West Virginia: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAY Score 92.0 63
WVU Score 103.0 53
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.9 / 30.9 26.0 / 41.0
Assists 13.0 / 13.8 10.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.0 / 3.2 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 43.1 36.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 69.2 / 63.0 67.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 37.8 32.0 / 33.0
Steals 4.8 / 6.1 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 12.6 13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
WVU Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
WVU Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +3.0
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
BAY
WVU
BAY
ML
63% 22-13
58% 19-14
76% 26-8
53% 17-15
ATS
60% 21-14
58% 19-14
76% 26-8
53% 17-15
TTL
40% 14-21
45% 15-18
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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