Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Gamecocks @ Bears JXST @ MOST

JACKSONVILLE STATE

GAMECOCKSJXST

11-9  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 3:00 PM ET
Great Southern Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

12-9  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
GAMECOCKS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
GAMECOCKS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Missouri State)
GamecocksJXST (-3.5) 0 BearsMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gamecocks Cover

0.0%

Bears Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MOST -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

JXST By 1-7 points

0.0%

JXST By 8-14 points

0.0%

MOST By 1-7 points

0.1%

MOST By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
61
JACKSONVILLE STATE
101
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
68
JACKSONVILLE STATE
72
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 JXST @ MOST 67 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +33.9% more
Jacksonville State: 3.0 vs Missouri State: 2.0
Free Throw % (L5) +5.0%
Jacksonville State: 73.4% vs Missouri State: 68.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
Jacksonville State: 37.6% vs Missouri State: 35.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JXST Score 61.0 67
MOST Score 101.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 37.6 33.0 / 14.0
Assists 12.8 / 12.0 16.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.0 / 3.0 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 46.2 47.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 68.4 / 73.4 57.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 33.3 / 32.0 28.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.3 / 7.1 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 12.3 12.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JXST
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: -0.1
MOST Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JXST
13-15-1 (46.4%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: -0.1
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
JXST
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +0.4
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
JXST
MOST
JXST
ML
65% 22-12
50% 16-16
62% 21-13
55% 17-14
ATS
68% 23-11
62% 20-12
62% 21-13
55% 17-14
TTL
44% 15-19
62% 20-12
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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