CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
LANCERSCBU
15-6 | Road
87
UT ARLINGTON
MAVERICKSUTA
14-6 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
LANCERS
100%
MAVERICKS
0%
LANCERS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
UT ARLINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (UT Arlington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)
CBU By 1-7 points
23.0%
CBU By 8-14 points
12.2%
UTA By 1-7 points
26.8%
UTA By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
California Baptist
85
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
UT Arlington
87
UT ARLINGTON
Simulated Score
California Baptist
71
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
UT Arlington
75
UT ARLINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Mavericks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Win
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
UTA @ CBU
56 - 68
Jan 31, 2026
CBU @ UTA
87 - 77
Jan 1, 2026
CBU @ UTA
51 - 63
Mar 8, 2025
UTA @ CBU
68 - 70
Feb 13, 2025
CBU @ UTA
79 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+59.2% more
UT Arlington: 7.9
vs
California Baptist: 5.0
Assists (L5)
+50.1% more
UT Arlington: 11.8
vs
California Baptist: 7.9
Blocks (L5)
+19.6% more
UT Arlington: 5.9
vs
California Baptist: 5.0
Turnovers (L5)
+11.6% more
UT Arlington: 13.5
vs
California Baptist: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CBU Score
85.0
87
UTA Score
87.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.5 / 35.6
27.0 / 30.0
Assists
11.8 / 7.9
17.0 / 13.0
Blocks
5.9 / 5.0
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 45.4
37.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
74.7 / 69.7
81.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
40.1 / 40.1
44.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.9 / 5.0
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 12.1
13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CBU
Advantage
25-9-0
(73.5%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +1.5
UTA
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.3
ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CBU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +1.5
UTA
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 3.3
ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CBU
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -4.1
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7%
Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
CBU
UTA
CBU
ML
50%
16-16
50%
17-17
62%
20-12
76%
25-8
ATS
59%
19-13
53%
18-16
62%
20-12
76%
25-8
TTL
53%
17-15
47%
16-18
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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