Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Rockets BALL @ TOL

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

7-13  |  Road

55
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 12:00 PM ET
Savage Arena
View Odds Details →

TOLEDO

ROCKETSTOL

11-10  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
ROCKETS
0%
CARDINALS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Toledo)
CardinalsBALL (-3.5) 0 RocketsTOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

0.5%

Rockets Cover

99.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOL -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

BALL By 1-7 points

0.4%

BALL By 8-14 points

0.0%

TOL By 1-7 points

2.7%

TOL By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
64
BALL STATE
90
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
71
BALL STATE
78
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockets (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 BALL @ TOL 55 - 73
Feb 18, 2025 BALL @ TOL 66 - 67
Jan 18, 2025 TOL @ BALL 93 - 75
Jan 13, 2024 BALL @ TOL 72 - 77
Mar 3, 2023 TOL @ BALL 87 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +44.5% more
Toledo: 11.8 vs Ball State: 8.2
Assists (L5) +39.7% more
Toledo: 15.3 vs Ball State: 11.0
Blocks (L5) +25.3% more
Toledo: 3.3 vs Ball State: 2.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.2%
Toledo: 43.5% vs Ball State: 31.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 64.0 55
TOL Score 90.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.5 / 31.3 30.0 / 19.0
Assists 15.3 / 11.0 16.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.3 / 2.6 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 43.5 48.0 / 31.0
Free Throw % 81.1 / 71.6 86.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 28.4 / 29.6 35.0 / 34.0
Steals 7.7 / 6.9 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 8.2 13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
TOL Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
TOL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
BALL
TOL
BALL
ML
48% 16-17
43% 13-17
61% 20-13
62% 18-11
ATS
48% 16-17
67% 20-10
61% 20-13
62% 18-11
TTL
64% 21-12
50% 15-15
100% 33-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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