NORTH CAROLINA A&T
AGGIESNCAT
9-11 | Road
60
DREXEL
DRAGONSDREX
11-11 | Home
61
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
DRAGONS
100%
AGGIES
--
DRAGONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
114.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.0
DREXEL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DREX +10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DREX)
NCAT By 1-7 points
23.0%
NCAT By 8-14 points
27.2%
DREX By 1-7 points
10.7%
DREX By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
North Carolina A&T
62
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Drexel
52
DREXEL
Simulated Score
North Carolina A&T
62
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Drexel
76
DREXEL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Aggies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dragons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Dragons (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +10.0
D
Sim
Dragons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 114.0
D
Sim
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
NCAT @ DREX
60 - 61
Jan 4, 2025
DREX @ NCAT
68 - 59
Jan 27, 2024
NCAT @ DREX
47 - 62
Jan 11, 2024
DREX @ NCAT
67 - 63
Jan 26, 2023
DREX @ NCAT
55 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+16.9% more
North Carolina A&T: 13.7
vs
Drexel: 11.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.2%
North Carolina A&T: 77.4%
vs
Drexel: 61.3%
Rebounding (L5)
+11.8% more
North Carolina A&T: 38.4
vs
Drexel: 33.9
Steals (L5)
+99.3% more
Drexel: 5.8
vs
North Carolina A&T: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NCAT Score
62.0
60
DREX Score
52.0
61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.2 / 31.5
39.0 / 24.0
Assists
12.5 / 9.4
15.0 / 9.0
Blocks
4.3 / 4.6
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 47.3
43.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
61.3 / 77.4
0.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
33.9 / 38.4
36.0 / 31.0
Steals
5.8 / 2.9
3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 13.7
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCAT
11-19-0
(36.7%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.5
DREX
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCAT
16-12-0
(57.1%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.5
DREX
Advantage
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NCAT
16-12-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +3.6
DREX
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DREX
NCAT
DREX
NCAT
ML
58%
19-14
52%
14-13
81%
26-6
63%
17-10
ATS
70%
23-10
63%
17-10
81%
26-6
64%
18-10
TTL
48%
16-17
69%
18-8-1
100%
32-0
100%
28-0
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