MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
30-17-7 | Road
4
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
31-17-5 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jakub Dobes
#75 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Alex Lyon
#34 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes | None-None | 2.00 | 0.947 | -- |
| Alex Lyon | None-None | 3.12 | 0.900 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00 Ldr
GAA
3.12
0.947 Ldr
Save %
0.900
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
0%
SABRES
100%
CANADIENS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BUF +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
MTL By 1 goal
19.7%
MTL By 2-3 goals
29.6%
BUF By 1 goal
12.1%
BUF By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Montreal
3
MONTREAL
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Montreal
3
MONTREAL
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Canadiens
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sabres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Sabres (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 18, 2026
MTL @ BUF
3 - 2
May 16, 2026
BUF @ MTL
8 - 3
May 14, 2026
MTL @ BUF
6 - 3
May 12, 2026
BUF @ MTL
3 - 2
May 10, 2026
BUF @ MTL
2 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+30.5% more
Montreal: 22.3
vs
Buffalo: 15.5
Blocked Shots (L5)
+15.3% more
Montreal: 17.6
vs
Buffalo: 14.9
Faceoff % (L5)
+7.9%
Montreal: 52.3%
vs
Buffalo: 44.4%
Power Play % (L5)
+7.1%
Montreal: 31.6%
vs
Buffalo: 24.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTL Score
3.0
4
BUF Score
2.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.9 / 17.6
7.0 / 20.0
Faceoff %
44.4 / 52.3
29.8 / 70.2
Hits
15.5 / 22.3
24.0 / 29.0
Power Play %
24.6 / 31.6
25.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
27.3 / 27.6
38.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
5.6 / 5.2
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
MTL
BUF
MTL
ML
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
ATS
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
100%
3-0
TTL
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
Contextual Game News
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Canadiens Call Up Jacob Fowler After Samuel Montembeault Injury …
Canadiens' Ivan Demidov Sidelined 2-4 Weeks with Lower-Body Inju…
Jiri Kulich's Emotional Game-Winner Lifts Sabres Over Blackhawks…