NEW YORK
RANGERSNYR
22-27-6 | Road
5
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
27-14-11 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jonathan Quick
#32 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ilya Solovyov
#7 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick | None-None | 5.11 | 0.848 | -- |
| Ilya Solovyov | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
5.11
GAA
--
0.848
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
100%
PENGUINS
0%
RANGERS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
NYR By 1 goal
12.1%
NYR By 2-3 goals
9.3%
PIT By 1 goal
19.7%
PIT By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
1
NEW YORK
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
New York
2
NEW YORK
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
PIT @ NYR
2 - 3
Jan 31, 2026
NYR @ PIT
5 - 6
Oct 11, 2025
NYR @ PIT
6 - 1
Oct 7, 2025
PIT @ NYR
3 - 0
Feb 23, 2025
NYR @ PIT
5 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+38.4% more
Pittsburgh: 32.0
vs
New York: 23.1
Takeaways (L5)
+26.2% more
Pittsburgh: 5.4
vs
New York: 4.2
Hits (L5)
+33.7% more
New York: 29.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 19.3
Power Play % (L5)
+25.7%
New York: 28.4%
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYR Score
1.0
5
PIT Score
2.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.7 / 12.2
12.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
53.5 / 55.5
39.1 / 60.9
Hits
19.3 / 29.1
16.0 / 26.0
Power Play %
2.7 / 28.4
20.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
32.0 / 23.1
34.0 / 20.0
Takeaways
5.4 / 4.2
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
NYR
PIT
NYR
ML
75%
3-1
80%
4-1
25%
1-3
40%
2-3
ATS
75%
3-1
80%
4-1
75%
3-1
60%
3-2
TTL
25%
1-3
60%
3-2
50%
2-2
60%
3-2
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