NEW MEXICO STATE
AGGIESNMSU
10-10 | Road
53
KENNESAW STATE
OWLSKENN
13-8 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
OWLS
0%
AGGIES
--
OWLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
KENNESAW STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Kennesaw State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around KENN -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENN)
NMSU By 1-7 points
0.0%
NMSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
KENN By 1-7 points
0.3%
KENN By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
New Mexico State
61
NEW MEXICO STATE
Kennesaw State
96
KENNESAW STATE
Simulated Score
New Mexico State
70
NEW MEXICO STATE
Kennesaw State
75
KENNESAW STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Owls
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Owls
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Owls (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Owls (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
KENN @ NMSU
76 - 79
Jan 31, 2026
NMSU @ KENN
53 - 76
Mar 13, 2025
NMSU @ KENN
77 - 80
Feb 22, 2025
NMSU @ KENN
60 - 49
Jan 23, 2025
KENN @ NMSU
69 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+221.1% more
Kennesaw State: 7.5
vs
New Mexico State: 2.3
Steals (L5)
+18.8% more
Kennesaw State: 6.2
vs
New Mexico State: 5.2
Turnovers (L5)
+13.4% more
Kennesaw State: 11.1
vs
New Mexico State: 9.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Kennesaw State: 39.2%
vs
New Mexico State: 35.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score
61.0
53
KENN Score
96.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.2 / 35.3
29.0 / 13.0
Assists
13.2 / 14.2
13.0 / 6.0
Blocks
7.5 / 2.3
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.7 / 42.1
42.0 / 25.0
Free Throw %
69.1 / 73.4
69.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
38.6 / 36.6
38.0 / 30.0
Steals
6.2 / 5.2
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 9.8
8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.4
KENN
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 6.8
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.4
KENN
Advantage
15-16-1
(48.4%)
Margin: 6.8
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3%
Total +/-: +3.2
KENN
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENN
NMSU
KENN
NMSU
ML
74%
25-9
61%
19-12
72%
23-9
67%
20-10
ATS
71%
24-10
65%
20-11
73%
24-9
67%
20-10
TTL
56%
19-15
45%
14-17
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
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