NC STATE
WOLFPACKNCSU
15-6 | Road
96
WAKE FOREST
DEMON DEACONSWAKE
11-10 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
WOLFPACK
100%
DEMON DEACONS
0%
WOLFPACK
--
DEMON DEACONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-46.0
WAKE FOREST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +46.0 points (Wake Forest)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WAKE -46.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WAKE)
NCSU By 1-7 points
0.0%
NCSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
WAKE By 1-7 points
0.0%
WAKE By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
NC State
51
NC STATE
Wake Forest
97
WAKE FOREST
Simulated Score
NC State
70
NC STATE
Wake Forest
75
WAKE FOREST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Demon Deacons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Demon Deacons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Demon Deacons (+6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -46.0
D
Sim
Demon Deacons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
NCSU @ WAKE
96 - 78
Dec 31, 2025
WAKE @ NCSU
57 - 70
Feb 22, 2025
WAKE @ NCSU
73 - 85
Jan 4, 2025
NCSU @ WAKE
59 - 77
Feb 10, 2024
NCSU @ WAKE
79 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+20.1% more
Wake Forest: 11.0
vs
NC State: 9.1
Blocks (L5)
+16.6% more
Wake Forest: 3.1
vs
NC State: 2.7
Steals (L5)
+19.6% more
NC State: 9.2
vs
Wake Forest: 7.4
Rebounding (L5)
+19.1% more
NC State: 36.8
vs
Wake Forest: 29.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score
51.0
96
WAKE Score
97.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.1 / 35.1
35.0 / 57.0
Assists
13.5 / 16.7
8.0 / 19.0
Blocks
3.1 / 2.7
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.1 / 47.1
47.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
78.2 / 79.0
88.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
29.8 / 36.8
27.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.4 / 9.2
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 9.1
9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
WAKE
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU
Advantage
16-17-1
(48.5%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
WAKE
16-18-1
(47.1%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2%
Total +/-: +6.0
WAKE
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WAKE
NCSU
WAKE
NCSU
ML
49%
17-18
59%
20-14
61%
20-13
55%
18-15
ATS
66%
23-12
71%
24-10
61%
20-13
55%
18-15
TTL
60%
21-14
71%
24-10
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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