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SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

15-5  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 1:00 PM ET
Dee Glen Smith Spectrum
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

17-3  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
AZTECS
0%
📊
AGGIES
100%
AZTECS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AztecsSDSU (-3.5) 0 AggiesUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aztecs Cover

42.1%

Aggies Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USU +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

SDSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

SDSU By 8-14 points

18.6%

USU By 1-7 points

23.0%

USU By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
63
SAN DIEGO STATE
61
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
68
SAN DIEGO STATE
72
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aztecs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 SDSU @ USU 62 - 73
Feb 25, 2026 USU @ SDSU 72 - 89
Jan 31, 2026 SDSU @ USU 66 - 71
Feb 22, 2025 SDSU @ USU 71 - 79
Dec 28, 2024 USU @ SDSU 67 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +35.9% more
San Diego State: 12.1 vs Utah State: 7.8
Steals (L5) +14.8% more
San Diego State: 9.3 vs Utah State: 7.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.8%
San Diego State: 42.5% vs Utah State: 32.7%
Free Throw % (L5) +6.6%
San Diego State: 78.5% vs Utah State: 71.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 63.0 66
USU Score 61.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 42.5 23.0 / 25.0
Assists 19.3 / 13.2 15.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.2 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.1 / 51.0 41.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 71.9 / 78.5 57.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 32.6 / 33.1 46.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.9 / 9.3 9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 7.8 / 12.1 18.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
SDSU
USU
SDSU
ML
49% 17-18
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
72% 23-9
ATS
74% 26-9
69% 22-10
67% 22-11
72% 23-9
TTL
51% 18-17
75% 24-8
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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