Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Thundering Herd @ Red Wolves MRSH @ ARST

MARSHALL

THUNDERING HERDMRSH

13-8  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 3:00 PM ET
First National Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS STATE

RED WOLVESARST

13-9  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERING HERD
0%
📊
RED WOLVES
100%
THUNDERING HERD --
RED WOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
117.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Marshall)
Thundering HerdMRSH (-3.5) 0 Red WolvesARST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thundering Herd Cover

81.6%

Red Wolves Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MRSH -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)

MRSH By 1-7 points

24.3%

MRSH By 8-14 points

26.8%

ARST By 1-7 points

12.2%

ARST By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
63
MARSHALL
54
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
71
MARSHALL
78
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thundering Herd Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Wolves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thundering Herd (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Red Wolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u165.5 Win
Proj Total: 117.0
D
Sim u165.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 MRSH @ ARST 70 - 61
Mar 8, 2025 MRSH @ ARST 74 - 77
Feb 5, 2025 ARST @ MRSH 72 - 77
Jan 21, 2023 MRSH @ ARST 87 - 78
Nov 27, 2020 ARST @ MRSH 56 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +65.3% more
Marshall: 7.4 vs Arkansas State: 2.6
Turnovers (L5) +44.7% more
Arkansas State: 14.6 vs Marshall: 10.1
Steals (L5) +20.4% more
Arkansas State: 7.3 vs Marshall: 6.0
Free Throw % (L5) +5.9%
Arkansas State: 74.3% vs Marshall: 68.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRSH Score 63.0 70
ARST Score 54.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 35.4 22.0 / 40.0
Assists 16.6 / 15.7 13.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.6 / 7.4 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 46.2 33.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 74.3 / 68.4 64.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 40.5 / 39.3 38.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.3 / 6.0 8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.6 / 10.1 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRSH
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
ARST Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRSH
10-20-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
ARST Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.1
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
MRSH
ARST
MRSH
ML
48% 15-16
70% 21-9
53% 16-14
62% 18-11
ATS
58% 18-13
70% 21-9
53% 16-14
62% 18-11
TTL
61% 19-12
50% 15-15
100% 30-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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