Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Sun Devils ARIZ @ ASU

ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

21-0  |  Road

87
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 2:00 PM ET
Desert Financial Arena
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

11-10  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
📊
SUN DEVILS
100%
WILDCATS --
SUN DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
ARIZONA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
WildcatsARIZ (-3.5) 0 Sun DevilsASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

24.2%

Sun Devils Cover

75.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ASU +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ASU)

ARIZ By 1-7 points

26.2%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

25.3%

ASU By 1-7 points

15.3%

ASU By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
78
ARIZONA
71
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
72
ARIZONA
78
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sun Devils Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sun Devils (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim Sun Devils (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 ARIZ @ ASU 87 - 74
Jan 14, 2026 ASU @ ARIZ 82 - 89
Mar 4, 2025 ASU @ ARIZ 100 - 113
Feb 1, 2025 ARIZ @ ASU 81 - 72
Feb 28, 2024 ARIZ @ ASU 85 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +26.2% more
Arizona: 41.5 vs Arizona State: 30.6
Steals (L5) +17.2% more
Arizona: 7.8 vs Arizona State: 6.5
Field Goal % (L5) +5.2%
Arizona: 51.4% vs Arizona State: 46.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.1%
Arizona: 75.1% vs Arizona State: 70.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score 78.0 87
ASU Score 71.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.9 / 33.4 33.0 / 36.0
Assists 15.0 / 15.9 14.0 / 17.0
Blocks 4.9 / 4.9 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 51.4 42.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 75.1 60.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 30.6 / 41.5 32.0 / 47.0
Steals 6.5 / 7.8 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 9.5 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ Advantage
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
ASU
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
ARIZ
ASU
ARIZ
ML
52% 17-16
67% 26-13
68% 21-10
68% 23-11
ATS
52% 17-16
74% 29-10
68% 21-10
68% 23-11
TTL
64% 21-12
56% 22-17
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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