Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Colonels @ Bears EKU @ CARK

EASTERN KENTUCKY

COLONELSEKU

7-15  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 4:30 PM ET
Farris Center
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL ARKANSAS

BEARSCARK

11-10  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
COLONELS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
COLONELS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
116.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Central Arkansas)
ColonelsEKU (-3.5) 0 BearsCARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colonels Cover

5.5%

Bears Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CARK -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CARK)

EKU By 1-7 points

4.0%

EKU By 8-14 points

0.8%

CARK By 1-7 points

13.7%

CARK By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
50
EASTERN KENTUCKY
66
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
71
EASTERN KENTUCKY
82
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u161.5 Loss
Proj Total: 116.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 EKU @ CARK 81 - 90
Jan 10, 2026 CARK @ EKU 75 - 79
Jan 2, 2025 EKU @ CARK 89 - 83
Feb 24, 2024 CARK @ EKU 82 - 95
Jan 11, 2024 EKU @ CARK 86 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +35.3% more
Central Arkansas: 18.0 vs Eastern Kentucky: 13.3
Steals (L5) +14.8% more
Central Arkansas: 8.5 vs Eastern Kentucky: 7.4
Field Goal % (L5) +7.2%
Central Arkansas: 51.6% vs Eastern Kentucky: 44.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Central Arkansas: 40.8% vs Eastern Kentucky: 36.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EKU Score 50.0 81
CARK Score 66.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.8 / 36.1 35.0 / 38.0
Assists 18.0 / 13.3 22.0 / 16.0
Blocks 1.4 / 2.0 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 51.6 / 44.4 49.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 76.8 / 72.3 50.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 34.4 37.0 / 42.0
Steals 8.5 / 7.4 9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.0 / 11.6 6.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EKU
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
CARK Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EKU
10-19-1 (34.5%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
CARK Advantage
19-10-3 (65.5%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
EKU
19-11-0
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.9
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CARK
EKU
CARK
EKU
ML
67% 22-11
44% 14-18
70% 23-10
69% 22-10
ATS
61% 20-13
56% 18-14
70% 23-10
69% 22-10
TTL
50% 16-16-1
53% 17-15
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Baylor Position-by-Position Preview: Can the Bears Avenge Auburn…
si 1 month ago
Tommy John, Legendary Pitcher and Namesake of Revolutionary Elbo…
westhawaiitoday 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Baylor's Caden Powell Granted Extra Year of Eligibility, Boostin…
si 2 months ago
Missouri State Coach Proposes Radical Plan: Free Academic Credit…
brobible 2 months ago
Baylor Lands Huge Commitment From Class of 2027 Point Guard TJ J…
headtopics 2 months, 1 week ago