JAMES MADISON
DUKESJMU
11-11 | Road
65
SOUTHERN MISS
GOLDEN EAGLESUSM
11-12 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
100%
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
DUKES
--
GOLDEN EAGLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Southern Miss)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USM -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)
JMU By 1-7 points
15.3%
JMU By 8-14 points
5.8%
USM By 1-7 points
26.2%
USM By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
James Madison
68
JAMES MADISON
Southern Miss
75
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
James Madison
70
JAMES MADISON
Southern Miss
75
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Eagles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Eagles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Eagles (+1)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Golden Eagles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
JMU @ USM
80 - 86
Jan 31, 2026
JMU @ USM
65 - 73
Jan 6, 2024
JMU @ USM
71 - 81
Jan 21, 2023
JMU @ USM
70 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+79.2% more
Southern Miss: 6.7
vs
James Madison: 3.7
Assists (L5)
+39.0% more
James Madison: 13.6
vs
Southern Miss: 8.3
Blocks (L5)
+30.2% more
James Madison: 3.9
vs
Southern Miss: 2.7
Rebounding (L5)
+17.8% more
James Madison: 40.1
vs
Southern Miss: 32.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
JMU Score
68.0
65
USM Score
75.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
23.4 / 39.6
30.0 / 20.0
Assists
8.3 / 13.6
9.0 / 6.0
Blocks
2.7 / 3.9
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
40.4 / 46.6
46.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
70.0 / 69.5
82.0 / 58.0
Rebounding
32.9 / 40.1
34.0 / 30.0
Steals
6.7 / 3.7
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 12.9
11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
USM
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
USM
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: +3.4
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
JMU
USM
JMU
ML
53%
18-16
64%
21-12
73%
24-9
66%
21-11
ATS
59%
20-14
67%
22-11
74%
25-9
66%
21-11
TTL
68%
23-11
67%
22-11
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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