SMU
MUSTANGSSMU
15-5 | Road
74
LOUISVILLE
CARDINALSLOU
14-6 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
0%
CARDINALS
100%
MUSTANGS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
116.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LOU +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)
SMU By 1-7 points
27.4%
SMU By 8-14 points
21.6%
LOU By 1-7 points
20.1%
LOU By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
SMU
60
SMU
Louisville
56
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
SMU
73
SMU
Louisville
76
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u161.5
Loss
Proj Total: 116.0
D
Sim
u161.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
SMU @ LOU
58 - 62
Feb 17, 2026
LOU @ SMU
85 - 95
Jan 31, 2026
SMU @ LOU
74 - 88
Jan 21, 2025
LOU @ SMU
98 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+39.2% more
SMU: 4.3
vs
Louisville: 2.6
Assists (L5)
+11.1% more
SMU: 17.0
vs
Louisville: 15.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
SMU: 47.1%
vs
Louisville: 42.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
SMU: 38.1%
vs
Louisville: 35.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SMU Score
60.0
74
LOU Score
56.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.7 / 38.1
29.0 / 32.0
Assists
15.1 / 17.0
20.0 / 7.0
Blocks
2.6 / 4.3
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.3 / 47.1
49.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
75.0 / 75.5
70.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
35.2 / 36.9
35.0 / 34.0
Steals
6.5 / 6.4
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 10.5
11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
LOU
Advantage
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
14-19-1
(42.4%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
LOU
Advantage
17-18-0
(48.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4%
Total +/-: +2.5
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
SMU
LOU
SMU
ML
63%
22-13
59%
20-14
71%
24-10
73%
24-9
ATS
71%
25-10
62%
21-13
71%
24-10
73%
24-9
TTL
63%
22-13
56%
19-15
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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