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DUKE

BLUE DEVILSDUKE

19-1  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 12:00 PM ET
Cassell Coliseum
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA TECH

HOKIESVT

16-6  |  Home

58
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE DEVILS
0%
📊
HOKIES
100%
BLUE DEVILS --
HOKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
178.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Duke)
Blue DevilsDUKE (-3.5) 0 HokiesVT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Devils Cover

91.9%

Hokies Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DUKE -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

DUKE By 1-7 points

16.9%

DUKE By 8-14 points

26.2%

VT By 1-7 points

5.8%

VT By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
96
DUKE
82
VIRGINIA TECH
Simulated Score
68
DUKE
75
VIRGINIA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Devils Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hokies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Devils (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Hokies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 178.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 DUKE @ VT 72 - 58
Dec 31, 2024 VT @ DUKE 65 - 88
Jan 29, 2024 DUKE @ VT 77 - 67
Feb 25, 2023 VT @ DUKE 65 - 81
Jan 23, 2023 DUKE @ VT 75 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +25.9% more
Duke: 8.5 vs Virginia Tech: 6.3
Assists (L5) +19.0% more
Duke: 15.3 vs Virginia Tech: 12.4
Rebounding (L5) +17.5% more
Duke: 41.3 vs Virginia Tech: 34.0
Field Goal % (L5) +9.9%
Duke: 50.6% vs Virginia Tech: 40.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score 96.0 72
VT Score 82.0 58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 33.2 27.0 / 24.0
Assists 12.4 / 15.3 11.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.0 / 2.2 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 40.7 / 50.6 42.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 71.8 / 73.5 83.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 41.3 26.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.3 / 8.5 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 11.0 10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE Advantage
35-3-0 (92.1%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
VT
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE
20-18-0 (52.6%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
VT Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2% Total +/-: -3.2
VT
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VT
DUKE
VT
DUKE
ML
53% 17-15
71% 27-11
72% 23-9
73% 24-9
ATS
59% 19-13
79% 30-8
72% 23-9
73% 24-9
TTL
69% 22-10
47% 18-20
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cayden Boozer's Return to Duke: Trusting the Vision in a Loaded …
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Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
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Duke's Cameron Crazies Crowned Top Student Section for 2026-27
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Duke Hosts Five-Star Asa Montgomery for Official Visit, Looking …
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Caleb Foster Anchors Duke's Loaded Backcourt for 2026-27
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