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CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

29-20  |  Road

113
FINAL
Fri, Jan 30 • 9:00 PM ET
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PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

29-19  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
📊
SUNS
0%
CAVALIERS --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Phoenix)
CavaliersCLE (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

42.1%

Suns Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)

CLE By 1-7 points

23.0%

CLE By 8-14 points

12.2%

PHX By 1-7 points

26.8%

PHX By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
120
CLEVELAND
122
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
110
CLEVELAND
115
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Suns Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Suns (+2) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Suns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o223.5 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim u223.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 30, 2026 CLE @ PHX 113 - 126
Dec 31, 2025 PHX @ CLE 113 - 129
Mar 21, 2025 CLE @ PHX 112 - 123
Jan 20, 2025 PHX @ CLE 92 - 118
Apr 3, 2024 CLE @ PHX 101 - 122
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +9.6% more
Phoenix: 15.1 vs Cleveland: 13.8
Free Throw % (L5) +5.5%
Phoenix: 82.1% vs Cleveland: 76.6%
Assists (L5) +21.2% more
Cleveland: 27.4 vs Phoenix: 21.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.7%
Cleveland: 39.1% vs Phoenix: 32.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 120.0 113
PHX Score 122.0 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.4 / 39.1 48.0 / 31.0
Assists 21.6 / 27.4 31.0 / 34.0
Blocks 4.1 / 4.4 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 50.6 53.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 82.1 / 76.6 72.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 43.2 / 45.7 43.0 / 43.0
Steals 9.1 / 9.0 15.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 15.1 / 13.8 22.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
CLE
PHX
CLE
ML
57% 60-45
60% 69-46
51% 45-43
56% 55-44
ATS
58% 59-43-3
67% 75-37-3
51% 45-43
56% 55-44
TTL
59% 61-42-2
59% 68-47
100% 88-0
100% 99-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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