SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
12-37 | Road
93
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
29-18 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
CELTICS
100%
KINGS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
SAC By 1-7 points
26.2%
SAC By 8-14 points
25.3%
BOS By 1-7 points
15.3%
BOS By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento
111
SACRAMENTO
Boston
104
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Sacramento
110
SACRAMENTO
Boston
122
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Kings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u217.0
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Sim
u217.0
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 30, 2026
SAC @ BOS
93 - 112
Jan 1, 2026
BOS @ SAC
120 - 106
Mar 24, 2025
BOS @ SAC
113 - 95
Jan 10, 2025
SAC @ BOS
114 - 97
Apr 5, 2024
SAC @ BOS
100 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+16.8% more
Sacramento: 16.5
vs
Boston: 13.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.3%
Sacramento: 81.1%
vs
Boston: 76.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Sacramento: 47.7%
vs
Boston: 45.3%
Blocks (L5)
+22.5% more
Boston: 5.2
vs
Sacramento: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
111.0
93
BOS Score
104.0
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 33.8
38.0 / 32.0
Assists
24.2 / 23.6
25.0 / 19.0
Blocks
5.2 / 4.2
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 47.7
45.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
76.9 / 81.1
63.0 / 91.0
Rebounding
45.8 / 43.0
44.0 / 47.0
Steals
7.2 / 6.5
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 16.5
7.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
SAC
BOS
SAC
ML
57%
61-46
55%
55-45
53%
47-41
61%
50-32
ATS
59%
61-43-3
54%
52-45-3
53%
47-41
61%
50-32
TTL
56%
60-47
58%
57-42-1
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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