MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
18-27 | Road
106
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
12-37 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
PELICANS
100%
GRIZZLIES
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
254.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
MEM By 1-7 points
23.0%
MEM By 8-14 points
27.2%
NO By 1-7 points
10.7%
NO By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
132
MEMPHIS
New Orleans
122
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
Memphis
105
MEMPHIS
New Orleans
108
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pelicans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies (-3)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Pelicans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o231.5
Loss
Proj Total: 254.0
D
Sim
u231.5
Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 30, 2026
MEM @ NO
106 - 114
Jan 23, 2026
NO @ MEM
133 - 127
Nov 26, 2025
MEM @ NO
133 - 128
Oct 22, 2025
NO @ MEM
122 - 128
Mar 9, 2025
MEM @ NO
107 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+24.5% more
Memphis: 14.8
vs
New Orleans: 11.1
Assists (L5)
+12.8% more
Memphis: 28.1
vs
New Orleans: 24.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Memphis: 44.7%
vs
New Orleans: 40.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
Memphis: 32.3%
vs
New Orleans: 29.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
132.0
106
NO Score
122.0
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.2 / 32.3
24.0 / 29.0
Assists
24.5 / 28.1
24.0 / 26.0
Blocks
7.0 / 6.8
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
40.8 / 44.7
49.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
78.9 / 80.3
77.0 / 93.0
Rebounding
51.2 / 41.3
42.0 / 46.0
Steals
9.8 / 8.2
13.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 14.8
16.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
NO
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
MEM
NO
MEM
ML
62%
98-61
57%
59-44
58%
48-35
50%
41-41
ATS
68%
107-51-1
63%
65-38
58%
48-35
50%
41-41
TTL
75%
119-40
70%
71-31-1
100%
83-0
100%
82-0
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