Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Stags @ Gaels FAIR @ IONA

FAIRFIELD

STAGSFAIR

13-9  |  Road

71
FINAL
Fri, Jan 30 • 7:00 PM ET
Hynes Athletics Center
View Odds Details →

IONA

GAELSIONA

14-8  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
STAGS
100%
📊
GAELS
0%
STAGS --
GAELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
174.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
IONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Iona)
StagsFAIR (-3.5) 0 GaelsIONA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stags Cover

42.1%

Gaels Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IONA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IONA)

FAIR By 1-7 points

23.0%

FAIR By 8-14 points

12.2%

IONA By 1-7 points

26.8%

IONA By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
86
FAIRFIELD
88
IONA
Simulated Score
70
FAIRFIELD
75
IONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Gaels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gaels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gaels (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Gaels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 174.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 30, 2026 FAIR @ IONA 71 - 70
Feb 2, 2025 FAIR @ IONA 64 - 87
Jan 10, 2025 IONA @ FAIR 64 - 68
Mar 13, 2024 IONA @ FAIR 63 - 68
Feb 2, 2024 FAIR @ IONA 82 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +31.1% more
Iona: 4.0 vs Fairfield: 3.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Iona: 33.6% vs Fairfield: 31.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Fairfield: 43.7% vs Iona: 40.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAIR Score 86.0 71
IONA Score 88.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 31.5 38.0 / 33.0
Assists 13.5 / 12.5 9.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.1 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.3 / 43.7 42.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 65.0 / 64.9 82.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 34.9 / 36.1 31.0 / 42.0
Steals 6.6 / 6.7 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 10.6 11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAIR Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
IONA
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAIR
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
IONA Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -0.2
IONA
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IONA
FAIR
IONA
FAIR
ML
41% 13-19
55% 18-15
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
ATS
53% 17-15
48% 16-17
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
TTL
66% 21-11
48% 16-17
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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