RIDER
BRONCSRID
2-17 | Road
90
MANHATTAN
JASPERSMAN
8-14 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCS
100%
JASPERS
0%
BRONCS
--
JASPERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-36.0
MANHATTAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +36.0 points (Manhattan)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MAN -36.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MAN)
RID By 1-7 points
0.0%
RID By 8-14 points
0.0%
MAN By 1-7 points
0.2%
MAN By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Rider
43
RIDER
Manhattan
79
MANHATTAN
Simulated Score
Rider
69
RIDER
Manhattan
72
MANHATTAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Jaspers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jaspers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jaspers (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Sim
Jaspers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 30, 2026
RID @ MAN
90 - 95
Dec 29, 2025
MAN @ RID
74 - 71
Jan 5, 2025
MAN @ RID
80 - 79
Feb 18, 2024
RID @ MAN
104 - 62
Jan 12, 2024
MAN @ RID
58 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+105.0% more
Manhattan: 8.6
vs
Rider: 4.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.9%
Manhattan: 81.9%
vs
Rider: 71.0%
Rebounding (L5)
+12.8% more
Rider: 36.7
vs
Manhattan: 32.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Rider: 31.3%
vs
Manhattan: 28.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RID Score
43.0
90
MAN Score
79.0
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.3 / 31.3
44.0 / 38.0
Assists
12.0 / 12.1
19.0 / 23.0
Blocks
2.7 / 2.5
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
38.5 / 39.4
52.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
81.9 / 71.0
95.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
32.0 / 36.7
29.0 / 33.0
Steals
8.6 / 4.2
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.3 / 10.1
8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RID
4-25-0
(13.8%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
MAN
Advantage
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RID
7-18-3
(28.0%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
MAN
Advantage
11-19-1
(36.7%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
RID
9-19-0
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -0.2
MAN
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MAN
RID
MAN
RID
ML
52%
16-15
72%
21-8
68%
21-10
66%
19-10
ATS
52%
16-15
72%
21-8
69%
22-10
66%
19-10
TTL
77%
24-7
62%
18-11
100%
32-0
100%
29-0
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