Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Flyers @ Billikens DAY @ SLU

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

14-7  |  Road

71
FINAL
Fri, Jan 30 • 8:00 PM ET
Chaifetz Arena
View Odds Details →

SAINT LOUIS

BILLIKENSSLU

20-1  |  Home

102
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
0%
📊
BILLIKENS
100%
FLYERS --
BILLIKENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Dayton)
FlyersDAY (-3.5) 0 BillikensSLU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

98.6%

Billikens Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAY -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)

DAY By 1-7 points

5.8%

DAY By 8-14 points

15.3%

SLU By 1-7 points

1.1%

SLU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
90
DAYTON
68
SAINT LOUIS
Simulated Score
68
DAYTON
75
SAINT LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Flyers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Billikens Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Flyers (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Billikens (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 DAY @ SLU 70 - 69
Feb 24, 2026 SLU @ DAY 62 - 77
Jan 30, 2026 DAY @ SLU 71 - 102
Mar 4, 2025 SLU @ DAY 67 - 75
Jan 31, 2025 DAY @ SLU 71 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +47.0% more
Dayton: 5.8 vs Saint Louis: 3.1
Turnovers (L5) +24.3% more
Dayton: 15.9 vs Saint Louis: 12.0
Free Throw % (L5) +15.6%
Dayton: 73.2% vs Saint Louis: 57.6%
Steals (L5) +8.3% more
Dayton: 8.1 vs Saint Louis: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAY Score 90.0 71
SLU Score 68.0 102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.9 / 35.1 61.0 / 35.0
Assists 19.4 / 14.5 23.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.1 / 5.8 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 50.0 / 46.0 63.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 57.6 / 73.2 65.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 40.5 / 32.6 30.0 / 23.0
Steals 7.4 / 8.1 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 15.9 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAY
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
SLU Advantage
29-6-0 (82.9%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAY
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
SLU Advantage
19-13-2 (59.4%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
SLU
18-16-0
O: 52.9% / U: 47.1% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SLU
DAY
SLU
DAY
ML
70% 23-10
65% 24-13
68% 21-10
64% 23-13
ATS
73% 24-9
68% 25-12
68% 21-10
64% 23-13
TTL
61% 20-13
57% 21-16
100% 31-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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