PROVIDENCE
FRIARSPROV
9-12 | Road
73
VILLANOVA
WILDCATSVILL
15-5 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
FRIARS
0%
WILDCATS
100%
FRIARS
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
PROVIDENCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Providence)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PROV -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PROV)
PROV By 1-7 points
18.6%
PROV By 8-14 points
26.8%
VILL By 1-7 points
6.8%
VILL By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Providence
85
PROVIDENCE
Villanova
72
VILLANOVA
Simulated Score
Providence
68
PROVIDENCE
Villanova
75
VILLANOVA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Friars
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Friars (-8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u157.5
Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 30, 2026
PROV @ VILL
73 - 87
Jan 13, 2026
VILL @ PROV
88 - 82
Feb 15, 2025
VILL @ PROV
62 - 75
Jan 17, 2025
PROV @ VILL
73 - 75
Mar 2, 2024
VILL @ PROV
71 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+59.3% more
Providence: 4.5
vs
Villanova: 1.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
Providence: 47.7%
vs
Villanova: 41.8%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.7%
Providence: 79.2%
vs
Villanova: 76.5%
Steals (L5)
+65.1% more
Villanova: 6.7
vs
Providence: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PROV Score
85.0
73
VILL Score
72.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.8 / 35.7
45.0 / 35.0
Assists
13.3 / 12.9
18.0 / 9.0
Blocks
1.8 / 4.5
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.8 / 47.7
51.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
76.5 / 79.2
64.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
34.2 / 36.7
26.0 / 40.0
Steals
6.7 / 4.0
9.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 11.4
5.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PROV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
VILL
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PROV
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
VILL
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +8.5
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VILL
PROV
VILL
PROV
ML
44%
14-18
59%
19-13
72%
23-9
67%
20-10
ATS
56%
18-14
50%
16-16
72%
23-9
67%
20-10
TTL
41%
13-19
44%
14-18
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
Luke Loucks Opens Up on Recruiting, Offensive Rebounding, and Ro…
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
NYT Mini Crossword Solutions for October 6: Tricky Clues Solved
Kentucky's AP Poll Exit Exposes Uphill Battle for National Respe…