UNLV
REBELSUNLV
10-10 | Road
76
NEVADA
WOLF PACKNEV
15-6 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
100%
WOLF PACK
0%
REBELS
--
WOLF PACK
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Nevada)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NEV -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)
UNLV By 1-7 points
12.2%
UNLV By 8-14 points
4.0%
NEV By 1-7 points
24.3%
NEV By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
UNLV
75
UNLV
Nevada
84
NEVADA
Simulated Score
UNLV
72
UNLV
Nevada
75
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wolf Pack
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolf Pack
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wolf Pack (-7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Wolf Pack (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
NEV @ UNLV
83 - 85
Jan 30, 2026
UNLV @ NEV
76 - 89
Feb 28, 2025
NEV @ UNLV
55 - 68
Feb 1, 2025
UNLV @ NEV
65 - 71
Mar 9, 2024
UNLV @ NEV
65 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+26.1% more
Nevada: 39.4
vs
UNLV: 31.2
Assists (L5)
+14.4% more
Nevada: 13.9
vs
UNLV: 12.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.4%
Nevada: 41.8%
vs
UNLV: 33.4%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.1%
Nevada: 76.1%
vs
UNLV: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score
75.0
76
NEV Score
84.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.8 / 33.4
57.0 / 42.0
Assists
13.9 / 12.2
20.0 / 13.0
Blocks
4.2 / 4.2
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
41.7 / 45.1
58.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
76.1 / 72.0
74.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
39.4 / 31.2
30.0 / 30.0
Steals
6.5 / 6.9
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 13.3
7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
NEV
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
NEV
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2%
Total +/-: +3.3
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2%
Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
UNLV
NEV
UNLV
ML
62%
23-14
50%
17-17
73%
27-10
59%
20-14
ATS
73%
27-10
65%
22-12
73%
27-10
59%
20-14
TTL
49%
18-19
62%
21-13
100%
37-0
100%
34-0
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