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BOISE STATE

BRONCOSBOIS

13-8  |  Road

69
FINAL
Fri, Jan 30 • 9:00 PM ET
Global Credit Union Arena
View Odds Details →

GRAND CANYON

LOPESGCU

13-7  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
📊
LOPES
100%
BRONCOS --
LOPES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Boise State)
BroncosBOIS (-3.5) 0 LopesGCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

81.6%

Lopes Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOIS -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

BOIS By 1-7 points

24.3%

BOIS By 8-14 points

26.8%

GCU By 1-7 points

12.2%

GCU By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
93
BOISE STATE
84
GRAND CANYON
Simulated Score
70
BOISE STATE
75
GRAND CANYON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Broncos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lopes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Broncos (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Lopes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 30, 2026 BOIS @ GCU 69 - 86
Jan 7, 2026 GCU @ BOIS 75 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +45.7% more
Boise State: 17.4 vs Grand Canyon: 9.4
Field Goal % (L5) +11.8%
Boise State: 52.6% vs Grand Canyon: 40.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.2%
Boise State: 36.5% vs Grand Canyon: 26.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.0%
Boise State: 77.7% vs Grand Canyon: 73.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score 93.0 69
GCU Score 84.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.2 / 36.5 60.0 / 35.0
Assists 9.4 / 17.4 15.0 / 15.0
Blocks 5.9 / 2.6 5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 40.8 / 52.6 59.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 73.7 / 77.7 83.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 40.4 / 35.4 26.0 / 28.0
Steals 6.4 / 5.6 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 9.2 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
GCU
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
GCU
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +3.8
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GCU
BOIS
GCU
BOIS
ML
66% 21-11
50% 16-16
68% 21-10
61% 19-12
ATS
72% 23-9
50% 16-16
68% 21-10
61% 19-12
TTL
44% 14-18
56% 18-14
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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