MOUNT ST. MARY'S
MOUNTAINEERSMSM
9-13 | Road
58
SAINT PETER'S
PEACOCKSSPU
11-7 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
PEACOCKS
100%
MOUNTAINEERS
--
PEACOCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Mount St. Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MSM -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSM)
MSM By 1-7 points
2.2%
MSM By 8-14 points
8.0%
SPU By 1-7 points
0.3%
SPU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Mount St. Mary's
83
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Saint Peter's
56
SAINT PETER'S
Simulated Score
Mount St. Mary's
65
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Saint Peter's
70
SAINT PETER'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mountaineers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Peacocks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mountaineers (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Peacocks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 30, 2026
MSM @ SPU
58 - 66
Jan 9, 2026
SPU @ MSM
65 - 70
Feb 21, 2025
SPU @ MSM
58 - 69
Feb 2, 2025
MSM @ SPU
79 - 64
Feb 23, 2024
SPU @ MSM
70 - 65
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.2%
Mount St. Mary's: 36.6%
vs
Saint Peter's: 28.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.2%
Mount St. Mary's: 46.2%
vs
Saint Peter's: 40.0%
Steals (L5)
+34.2% more
Saint Peter's: 7.5
vs
Mount St. Mary's: 5.6
Blocks (L5)
+30.3% more
Saint Peter's: 4.2
vs
Mount St. Mary's: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MSM Score
83.0
58
SPU Score
56.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.4 / 36.6
36.0 / 26.0
Assists
12.5 / 10.9
17.0 / 9.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.2
0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
40.0 / 46.2
36.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
70.4 / 67.8
74.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
41.6 / 36.0
33.0 / 38.0
Steals
7.5 / 5.6
8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 13.5
9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
SPU
Advantage
17-12-0
(58.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM
17-13-1
(56.7%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
SPU
Advantage
16-11-1
(59.3%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7%
Total +/-: -3.9
SPU
10-18-0
O: 35.7% / U: 64.3%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SPU
MSM
SPU
MSM
ML
64%
18-10
53%
17-15
71%
20-8
61%
19-12
ATS
71%
20-8
62%
20-12
71%
20-8
61%
19-12
TTL
61%
17-11
81%
26-6
100%
28-0
100%
31-0
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