NORTH CAROLINA A&T
AGGIESNCAT
9-10 | Road
81
MONMOUTH
HAWKSMONM
10-11 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
HAWKS
0%
AGGIES
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
188.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MONMOUTH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Monmouth)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MONM -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONM)
NCAT By 1-7 points
10.7%
NCAT By 8-14 points
3.3%
MONM By 1-7 points
23.0%
MONM By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
North Carolina A&T
89
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Monmouth
99
MONMOUTH
Simulated Score
North Carolina A&T
65
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Monmouth
78
MONMOUTH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (-8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.0
Win
Proj Total: 188.0
D
Sim
u144.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 29, 2026
NCAT @ MONM
81 - 83
Jan 16, 2025
MONM @ NCAT
72 - 63
Feb 24, 2024
NCAT @ MONM
67 - 83
Feb 13, 2023
NCAT @ MONM
71 - 85
Jan 28, 2023
MONM @ NCAT
79 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+102.4% more
Monmouth: 6.8
vs
North Carolina A&T: 3.4
Assists (L5)
+58.1% more
Monmouth: 16.8
vs
North Carolina A&T: 10.7
Turnovers (L5)
+13.4% more
Monmouth: 14.2
vs
North Carolina A&T: 12.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.8%
Monmouth: 40.6%
vs
North Carolina A&T: 34.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NCAT Score
89.0
81
MONM Score
99.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.6 / 34.8
30.0 / 25.0
Assists
16.8 / 10.7
12.0 / 7.0
Blocks
3.9 / 3.8
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 46.9
43.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
61.5 / 72.7
84.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
38.3 / 38.1
28.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.8 / 3.4
7.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 12.6
8.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCAT
11-19-0
(36.7%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.5
MONM
Advantage
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCAT
Advantage
16-12-0
(57.1%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.5
MONM
17-15-1
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NCAT
16-12-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +3.6
MONM
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MONM
NCAT
MONM
NCAT
ML
62%
21-13
52%
14-13
64%
21-12
63%
17-10
ATS
62%
21-13
63%
17-10
64%
21-12
64%
18-10
TTL
59%
20-14
69%
18-8-1
100%
33-0
100%
28-0
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