Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lancers @ Spartans LONG @ UPST

LONGWOOD

LANCERSLONG

12-10  |  Road

60
FINAL
Thu, Jan 29 • 7:00 PM ET
G.B. Hodge Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE

SPARTANSUPST

9-13  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
LANCERS
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
LANCERS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (South Carolina Upstate)
LancersLONG (-3.5) 0 SpartansUPST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lancers Cover

30.9%

Spartans Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UPST -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UPST)

LONG By 1-7 points

18.6%

LONG By 8-14 points

8.0%

UPST By 1-7 points

27.2%

UPST By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
74
LONGWOOD
79
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Simulated Score
68
LONGWOOD
72
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 UPST @ LONG 75 - 82
Jan 29, 2026 LONG @ UPST 60 - 65
Mar 1, 2025 LONG @ UPST 83 - 66
Jan 25, 2025 UPST @ LONG 54 - 80
Feb 7, 2024 UPST @ LONG 69 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +62.8% more
South Carolina Upstate: 4.4 vs Longwood: 2.7
Steals (L5) +61.1% more
Longwood: 11.5 vs South Carolina Upstate: 4.5
Turnovers (L5) +22.0% more
Longwood: 14.2 vs South Carolina Upstate: 11.0
Assists (L5) +15.1% more
Longwood: 12.9 vs South Carolina Upstate: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LONG Score 74.0 60
UPST Score 79.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 35.4 32.0 / 20.0
Assists 10.9 / 12.9 13.0 / 7.0
Blocks 4.4 / 2.7 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.7 / 48.8 45.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 67.1 / 77.2 44.0 / 44.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 36.9 35.0 / 40.0
Steals 4.5 / 11.5 11.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 14.2 18.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LONG Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
UPST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LONG
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
UPST
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.7
UPST
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UPST
LONG
UPST
LONG
ML
61% 19-12
65% 20-11
83% 25-5
68% 21-10
ATS
61% 19-12
68% 21-10
83% 25-5
68% 21-10
TTL
52% 16-15
65% 20-11
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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