MIAMI
HEATMIA
25-23 | Road
116
CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
23-24 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
BULLS
0%
HEAT
--
BULLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)
MIA By 1-7 points
23.0%
MIA By 8-14 points
12.2%
CHI By 1-7 points
26.8%
CHI By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
120
MIAMI
Chicago
122
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Miami
103
MIAMI
Chicago
107
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulls
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulls
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulls (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Bulls (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o238.0
Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim
u238.0
Win
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 1, 2026
CHI @ MIA
91 - 134
Jan 31, 2026
CHI @ MIA
125 - 118
Jan 29, 2026
MIA @ CHI
116 - 113
Nov 21, 2025
MIA @ CHI
143 - 107
Apr 16, 2025
MIA @ CHI
109 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+10.7% more
Chicago: 30.4
vs
Miami: 27.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.0%
Chicago: 41.2%
vs
Miami: 36.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Chicago: 49.7%
vs
Miami: 45.8%
Steals (L5)
+34.2% more
Miami: 7.3
vs
Chicago: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
120.0
116
CHI Score
122.0
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.2 / 36.2
39.0 / 33.0
Assists
30.4 / 27.5
25.0 / 29.0
Blocks
3.5 / 4.1
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.7 / 45.8
39.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
79.4 / 83.1
83.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
43.8 / 51.9
52.0 / 49.0
Steals
4.8 / 7.3
5.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 14.7
16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHI
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHI
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
MIA
CHI
MIA
ML
56%
54-42
48%
46-50
57%
46-35
59%
48-34
ATS
65%
62-33-1
51%
49-47
57%
46-35
59%
48-34
TTL
58%
56-40
59%
57-39
100%
81-0
100%
82-0
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
Luka Doncic Embraces Lakers Legacy: 'It's an Honor, Not Pressure…
Phillies' 2027 Forecast: Four Farmhands Ready to Step Up