HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
28-17 | Road
104
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
24-25 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
HAWKS
100%
ROCKETS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
25.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
26.2%
ATL By 1-7 points
13.7%
ATL By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
125
HOUSTON
Atlanta
117
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Houston
112
HOUSTON
Atlanta
115
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o223.5
Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim
u223.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 20, 2026
ATL @ HOU
95 - 117
Jan 29, 2026
HOU @ ATL
104 - 86
Oct 16, 2025
HOU @ ATL
133 - 115
Oct 6, 2025
ATL @ HOU
113 - 122
Mar 25, 2025
ATL @ HOU
114 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+24.6% more
Houston: 6.1
vs
Atlanta: 4.6
Turnovers (L5)
+12.8% more
Houston: 15.2
vs
Atlanta: 13.3
Rebounding (L5)
+10.5% more
Houston: 48.2
vs
Atlanta: 43.1
Assists (L5)
+22.9% more
Atlanta: 30.9
vs
Houston: 25.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
125.0
104
ATL Score
117.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.7 / 34.8
31.0 / 39.0
Assists
30.9 / 25.1
19.0 / 23.0
Blocks
4.6 / 6.1
5.0 / 14.0
Field Goal %
47.9 / 44.2
37.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
77.1 / 71.2
86.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
43.1 / 48.2
46.0 / 59.0
Steals
9.7 / 10.4
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 15.2
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
HOU
ATL
HOU
ML
50%
52-52
61%
69-44
55%
48-40
59%
51-35
ATS
53%
55-48-1
62%
70-43
55%
48-40
59%
51-35
TTL
53%
55-48-1
51%
58-55
100%
88-0
100%
86-0
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