CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
20-28 | Road
123
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
19-28 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
MAVERICKS
100%
HORNETS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
CHA By 1-7 points
26.8%
CHA By 8-14 points
18.6%
DAL By 1-7 points
23.0%
DAL By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
123
CHARLOTTE
Dallas
121
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Charlotte
107
CHARLOTTE
Dallas
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hornets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks (+3)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Mavericks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o227.0
Win
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Sim
u227.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
DAL @ CHA
90 - 117
Jan 29, 2026
CHA @ DAL
123 - 121
Oct 11, 2025
CHA @ DAL
120 - 116
Feb 27, 2025
CHA @ DAL
96 - 103
Jan 20, 2025
DAL @ CHA
105 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+16.6% more
Charlotte: 19.3
vs
Dallas: 16.1
Assists (L5)
+13.0% more
Charlotte: 28.1
vs
Dallas: 24.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.8%
Charlotte: 80.4%
vs
Dallas: 71.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.1%
Charlotte: 38.8%
vs
Dallas: 30.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
123.0
123
DAL Score
121.0
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.7 / 38.8
33.0 / 49.0
Assists
24.4 / 28.1
26.0 / 28.0
Blocks
4.5 / 2.8
8.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
46.5 / 50.7
47.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
71.6 / 80.4
88.0 / 94.0
Rebounding
47.9 / 47.2
50.0 / 45.0
Steals
7.7 / 6.7
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
16.1 / 19.3
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
CHA
DAL
CHA
ML
62%
63-39
61%
60-39
54%
44-37
48%
40-44
ATS
67%
68-34
60%
59-40
54%
44-37
48%
40-44
TTL
59%
60-41-1
58%
57-42
100%
81-0
100%
84-0
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