MICHIGAN
WOLVERINESMICH
19-1 | Road
83
MICHIGAN STATE
SPARTANSMSU
19-2 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
WOLVERINES
0%
SPARTANS
100%
WOLVERINES
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Michigan)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MICH -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)
MICH By 1-7 points
4.8%
MICH By 8-14 points
13.7%
MSU By 1-7 points
0.8%
MSU By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Michigan
84
MICHIGAN
Michigan State
61
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
Michigan
68
MICHIGAN
Michigan State
75
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wolverines
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spartans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Wolverines (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim
Spartans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
MSU @ MICH
80 - 90
Jan 30, 2026
MICH @ MSU
83 - 71
Mar 9, 2025
MICH @ MSU
62 - 79
Feb 21, 2025
MSU @ MICH
75 - 62
Feb 17, 2024
MSU @ MICH
73 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+42.5% more
Michigan: 6.4
vs
Michigan State: 3.7
Turnovers (L5)
+19.0% more
Michigan: 14.7
vs
Michigan State: 11.9
Assists (L5)
+21.4% more
Michigan State: 18.7
vs
Michigan: 15.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.2%
Michigan State: 37.3%
vs
Michigan: 28.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MICH Score
84.0
83
MSU Score
61.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.3 / 28.0
17.0 / 38.0
Assists
18.7 / 15.4
14.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.0 / 4.3
5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
52.6 / 49.2
37.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
76.8 / 73.5
85.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
39.3 / 37.1
36.0 / 36.0
Steals
3.7 / 6.4
7.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 14.7
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MICH
Advantage
37-3-0
(92.5%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +3.6
MSU
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MICH
19-21-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +3.6
MSU
Advantage
17-16-2
(51.5%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5%
Total +/-: -1.6
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
MICH
MSU
MICH
ML
71%
25-10
78%
31-9
61%
20-13
63%
24-14
ATS
71%
25-10
78%
31-9
61%
20-13
63%
24-14
TTL
49%
17-18
57%
23-17
100%
33-0
100%
38-0
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