STETSON
HATTERSSTET
7-14 | Road
84
NORTH FLORIDA
OSPREYSUNF
5-16 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
HATTERS
0%
OSPREYS
100%
HATTERS
--
OSPREYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-44.0
STETSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +44.0 points (Stetson)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around STET -44.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STET)
STET By 1-7 points
0.0%
STET By 8-14 points
0.1%
UNF By 1-7 points
0.0%
UNF By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Stetson
105
STETSON
North Florida
61
NORTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Stetson
73
STETSON
North Florida
78
NORTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hatters
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Ospreys
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hatters (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -44.0
D
Sim
Ospreys (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o165.5
Loss
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim
u165.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
UNF @ STET
71 - 76
Jan 29, 2026
STET @ UNF
84 - 77
Feb 18, 2025
UNF @ STET
79 - 71
Jan 29, 2025
STET @ UNF
100 - 101
Mar 1, 2024
STET @ UNF
59 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+32.4% more
Stetson: 6.6
vs
North Florida: 4.5
Turnovers (L5)
+21.6% more
Stetson: 13.7
vs
North Florida: 10.8
Blocks (L5)
+11.7% more
Stetson: 2.1
vs
North Florida: 1.9
Rebounding (L5)
+10.7% more
Stetson: 36.2
vs
North Florida: 32.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STET Score
105.0
84
UNF Score
61.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.5 / 34.8
32.0 / 41.0
Assists
17.8 / 15.6
18.0 / 21.0
Blocks
1.9 / 2.1
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
52.0 / 44.4
45.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
81.7 / 72.8
82.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
32.3 / 36.2
34.0 / 36.0
Steals
4.5 / 6.6
2.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 13.7
11.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STET
Advantage
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.1
ATS +/-: +2.0
UNF
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -8.6
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STET
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: -6.1
ATS +/-: +2.0
UNF
Advantage
17-12-0
(58.6%)
Margin: -8.6
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
STET
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
UNF
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNF
STET
UNF
STET
ML
69%
22-10
55%
18-15
66%
21-11
73%
24-9
ATS
69%
22-10
64%
21-12
66%
21-11
73%
24-9
TTL
66%
21-11
61%
20-13
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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