UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
12-7 | Road
55
VERMONT
CATAMOUNTSUVM
13-8 | Home
64
AI Model Win Probability
RETRIEVERS
100%
CATAMOUNTS
0%
RETRIEVERS
--
CATAMOUNTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
VERMONT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Vermont)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVM -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVM)
UMBC By 1-7 points
3.3%
UMBC By 8-14 points
0.6%
UVM By 1-7 points
12.2%
UVM By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UMBC
53
UMBC
Vermont
70
VERMONT
Simulated Score
UMBC
60
UMBC
Vermont
72
VERMONT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Catamounts
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts (-8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Catamounts (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
UVM @ UMBC
59 - 74
Feb 19, 2026
UVM @ UMBC
62 - 75
Jan 29, 2026
UMBC @ UVM
55 - 64
Mar 1, 2025
UVM @ UMBC
79 - 69
Jan 25, 2025
UMBC @ UVM
80 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+80.4% more
Vermont: 3.4
vs
UMBC: 1.9
Assists (L5)
+13.5% more
Vermont: 11.3
vs
UMBC: 9.9
Rebounding (L5)
+10.7% more
Vermont: 36.5
vs
UMBC: 33.0
Steals (L5)
+11.0% more
UMBC: 4.6
vs
Vermont: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UMBC Score
53.0
55
UVM Score
70.0
64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 37.3
37.0 / 23.0
Assists
11.3 / 9.9
13.0 / 7.0
Blocks
3.4 / 1.9
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.4 / 49.5
41.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
76.5 / 82.7
59.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
36.5 / 33.0
37.0 / 33.0
Steals
4.1 / 4.6
1.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
7.9 / 7.8
9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
UVM
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
UVM
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
UVM
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVM
UMBC
UVM
UMBC
ML
56%
19-15
58%
18-13
65%
22-12
55%
17-14
ATS
62%
21-13
68%
21-10
65%
22-12
55%
17-14
TTL
47%
16-18
39%
12-19
100%
34-0
100%
31-0