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MONTANA STATE

BOBCATSMTST

13-8  |  Road

80
FINAL
Thu, Jan 29 • 10:00 PM ET
Hornet Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO STATE

HORNETSSAC

6-13  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
📊
HORNETS
100%
BOBCATS --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
185.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BobcatsMTST (-3.5) 0 HornetsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

38.2%

Hornets Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

MTST By 1-7 points

27.2%

MTST By 8-14 points

20.1%

SAC By 1-7 points

21.6%

SAC By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
94
MONTANA STATE
91
SACRAMENTO STATE
Simulated Score
78
MONTANA STATE
72
SACRAMENTO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bobcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bobcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hornets (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Bobcats (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o153.5 Win
Proj Total: 185.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 SAC @ MTST 61 - 82
Jan 29, 2026 MTST @ SAC 80 - 83
Mar 1, 2025 MTST @ SAC 87 - 60
Jan 30, 2025 SAC @ MTST 58 - 70
Mar 12, 2024 SAC @ MTST 71 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +25.6% more
Montana State: 2.8 vs Sacramento State: 2.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.2%
Montana State: 41.7% vs Sacramento State: 28.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
Montana State: 47.5% vs Sacramento State: 41.5%
Assists (L5) +25.2% more
Sacramento State: 12.8 vs Montana State: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTST Score 94.0 80
SAC Score 91.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.6 / 41.7 44.0 / 43.0
Assists 12.8 / 10.2 13.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.1 / 2.8 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 41.5 / 47.5 56.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 85.8 / 80.1 79.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 32.0 / 31.4 30.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.5 / 5.8 11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 9.7 11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
SAC
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST Advantage
16-12-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
SAC
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.5
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
MTST
SAC
MTST
ML
57% 17-13
52% 16-15
87% 26-4
67% 20-10
ATS
73% 22-8
52% 16-15
87% 27-4
67% 20-10
TTL
60% 18-12
65% 20-11
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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