DETROIT
PISTONSDET
34-11 | Road
96
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
28-19 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
SUNS
100%
PISTONS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-7 points
20.1%
DET By 8-14 points
27.2%
PHX By 1-7 points
8.0%
PHX By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
119
DETROIT
Phoenix
107
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Detroit
115
DETROIT
Phoenix
108
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pistons (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Pistons (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o214.0
Loss
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim
u214.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 29, 2026
DET @ PHX
96 - 114
Jan 15, 2026
PHX @ DET
105 - 108
Jan 18, 2025
PHX @ DET
125 - 121
Dec 21, 2024
DET @ PHX
133 - 125
Oct 8, 2024
PHX @ DET
105 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+17.4% more
Detroit: 26.0
vs
Phoenix: 21.5
Steals (L5)
+16.0% more
Detroit: 11.5
vs
Phoenix: 9.7
Blocks (L5)
+8.8% more
Detroit: 5.1
vs
Phoenix: 4.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.3%
Detroit: 31.8%
vs
Phoenix: 29.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
119.0
96
PHX Score
107.0
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.6 / 31.8
38.0 / 21.0
Assists
21.5 / 26.0
22.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.7 / 5.1
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 48.4
47.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
81.7 / 78.3
83.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
41.4 / 42.1
47.0 / 37.0
Steals
9.7 / 11.5
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 14.0
17.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
DET
PHX
DET
ML
57%
60-45
55%
64-53
51%
45-43
49%
47-49
ATS
58%
59-43-3
53%
60-54-3
51%
45-43
49%
47-49
TTL
59%
61-42-2
60%
70-46-1
100%
88-0
100%
96-0
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