Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nets @ Nuggets BKN @ DEN

BROOKLYN

NETSBKN

12-33  |  Road

103
FINAL
Thu, Jan 29 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

31-16  |  Home

107
AI Model Win Probability
NETS
100%
📊
NUGGETS
0%
NETS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Denver)
NetsBKN (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nets Cover

42.1%

Nuggets Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

BKN By 1-7 points

23.0%

BKN By 8-14 points

12.2%

DEN By 1-7 points

26.8%

DEN By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
113
BROOKLYN
115
DENVER
Simulated Score
110
BROOKLYN
115
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o208.5 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Sim u208.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 BKN @ DEN 103 - 107
Jan 4, 2026 DEN @ BKN 115 - 127
Jan 10, 2025 BKN @ DEN 105 - 124
Oct 29, 2024 DEN @ BKN 144 - 139
Dec 22, 2023 DEN @ BKN 122 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +70.1% more
Denver: 6.0 vs Brooklyn: 3.5
Rebounding (L5) +14.0% more
Denver: 43.6 vs Brooklyn: 38.3
Free Throw % (L5) +3.1%
Denver: 80.6% vs Brooklyn: 77.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Denver: 45.1% vs Brooklyn: 43.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BKN Score 113.0 103
DEN Score 115.0 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 33.3 50.0 / 38.0
Assists 24.0 / 24.8 24.0 / 24.0
Blocks 6.0 / 3.5 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 43.2 48.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 80.6 / 77.5 72.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 43.6 / 38.3 41.0 / 49.0
Steals 6.3 / 8.6 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 17.4 7.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BKN
20-62-0 (24.4%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BKN
38-43-1 (46.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BKN
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: -0.7
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
BKN
DEN
BKN
ML
54% 57-48
53% 50-45
55% 47-39
59% 48-34
ATS
63% 65-38-2
52% 48-44-3
55% 47-39
59% 48-34
TTL
54% 56-48-1
57% 54-41
100% 86-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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