UC DAVIS
AGGIESUCD
12-8 | Road
78
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
MATADORSCSUN
11-10 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
MATADORS
100%
AGGIES
--
MATADORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSUN +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUN)
UCD By 1-7 points
26.8%
UCD By 8-14 points
18.6%
CSUN By 1-7 points
23.0%
CSUN By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Davis
89
UC DAVIS
Cal State Northridge
87
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Simulated Score
UC Davis
67
UC DAVIS
Cal State Northridge
76
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Aggies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Matadors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Matadors (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Matadors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o162.5
Win
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 29, 2026
UCD @ CSUN
78 - 94
Jan 1, 2026
CSUN @ UCD
80 - 89
Feb 22, 2025
CSUN @ UCD
65 - 62
Jan 4, 2025
UCD @ CSUN
61 - 73
Feb 22, 2024
UCD @ CSUN
66 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+15.0% more
UC Davis: 16.9
vs
Cal State Northridge: 14.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.3%
UC Davis: 70.2%
vs
Cal State Northridge: 58.0%
Blocks (L5)
+11.5% more
UC Davis: 3.2
vs
Cal State Northridge: 2.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.6%
UC Davis: 39.5%
vs
Cal State Northridge: 28.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCD Score
89.0
78
CSUN Score
87.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.9 / 39.5
34.0 / 38.0
Assists
14.4 / 16.9
30.0 / 18.0
Blocks
2.8 / 3.2
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.9 / 44.0
53.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
58.0 / 70.2
52.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
42.7 / 34.7
43.0 / 39.0
Steals
7.3 / 6.2
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 12.6
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCD
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
CSUN
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCD
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
CSUN
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUN
UCD
CSUN
UCD
ML
58%
19-14
58%
19-14
67%
22-11
64%
21-12
ATS
58%
19-14
61%
20-13
67%
22-11
64%
21-12
TTL
58%
19-14
61%
20-13
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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