UTAH VALLEY
WOLVERINESUVU
15-6 | Road
83
TARLETON STATE
TEXANSTAR
11-9 | Home
55
AI Model Win Probability
WOLVERINES
0%
TEXANS
100%
WOLVERINES
--
TEXANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
UTAH VALLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Utah Valley)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UVU -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVU)
UVU By 1-7 points
13.7%
UVU By 8-14 points
24.3%
TAR By 1-7 points
4.0%
TAR By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah Valley
77
UTAH VALLEY
Tarleton State
61
TARLETON STATE
Simulated Score
Utah Valley
68
UTAH VALLEY
Tarleton State
72
TARLETON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wolverines
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Texans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Wolverines (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Texans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
TAR @ UVU
72 - 79
Jan 29, 2026
UVU @ TAR
83 - 55
Jan 1, 2026
UVU @ TAR
91 - 85
Mar 8, 2025
UVU @ TAR
71 - 66
Feb 8, 2025
TAR @ UVU
56 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+40.1% more
Utah Valley: 3.2
vs
Tarleton State: 1.9
Assists (L5)
+14.7% more
Utah Valley: 15.3
vs
Tarleton State: 13.0
Rebounding (L5)
+8.5% more
Utah Valley: 35.3
vs
Tarleton State: 32.3
Steals (L5)
+27.6% more
Tarleton State: 10.4
vs
Utah Valley: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVU Score
77.0
83
TAR Score
61.0
55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.1 / 23.9
36.0 / 50.0
Assists
13.0 / 15.3
7.0 / 18.0
Blocks
1.9 / 3.2
3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 44.2
28.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
79.5 / 68.7
69.0 / 94.0
Rebounding
32.3 / 35.3
26.0 / 38.0
Steals
10.4 / 8.1
13.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 13.1
19.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVU
Advantage
25-9-0
(73.5%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
TAR
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
TAR
Advantage
14-14-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UVU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +1.8
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TAR
UVU
TAR
UVU
ML
59%
19-13
56%
18-14
66%
21-11
72%
23-9
ATS
69%
22-10
53%
17-15
66%
21-11
74%
25-9
TTL
50%
16-16
44%
14-18
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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