Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dukes @ Trojans JMU @ TROY

JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

10-11  |  Road

73
FINAL
Thu, Jan 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Trojan Arena
View Odds Details →

TROY

TROJANSTROY

15-6  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
0%
📊
TROJANS
100%
DUKES --
TROJANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (James Madison)
DukesJMU (-3.5) 0 TrojansTROY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dukes Cover

99.9%

Trojans Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around JMU -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

JMU By 1-7 points

0.6%

JMU By 8-14 points

3.3%

TROY By 1-7 points

0.1%

TROY By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
82
JAMES MADISON
50
TROY
Simulated Score
74
JAMES MADISON
82
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dukes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trojans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dukes (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim Trojans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 JMU @ TROY 73 - 64
Mar 9, 2025 TROY @ JMU 79 - 60
Feb 5, 2025 TROY @ JMU 61 - 64
Mar 4, 2023 TROY @ JMU 72 - 75
Jan 19, 2023 JMU @ TROY 89 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +38.9% more
James Madison: 4.4 vs Troy: 2.7
Turnovers (L5) +11.6% more
James Madison: 12.8 vs Troy: 11.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
James Madison: 38.4% vs Troy: 35.9%
Steals (L5) +56.4% more
Troy: 7.1 vs James Madison: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 82.0 73
TROY Score 50.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.9 / 38.4 28.0 / 42.0
Assists 15.2 / 15.9 16.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.7 / 4.4 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 45.8 36.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 75.7 / 71.7 67.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 40.0 / 37.6 33.0 / 45.0
Steals 7.1 / 4.6 9.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 12.8 6.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
TROY Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
TROY Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
JMU
TROY
JMU
ML
59% 20-14
64% 21-12
61% 20-13
66% 21-11
ATS
65% 22-12
67% 22-11
61% 20-13
66% 21-11
TTL
56% 19-15
67% 22-11
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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