SOUTHERN UTAH
THUNDERBIRDSSUU
7-14 | Road
61
UT ARLINGTON
MAVERICKSUTA
13-6 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERBIRDS
100%
MAVERICKS
0%
THUNDERBIRDS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
UT ARLINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (UT Arlington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTA -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)
SUU By 1-7 points
4.8%
SUU By 8-14 points
1.1%
UTA By 1-7 points
15.3%
UTA By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Southern Utah
65
SOUTHERN UTAH
UT Arlington
80
UT ARLINGTON
Simulated Score
Southern Utah
71
SOUTHERN UTAH
UT Arlington
75
UT ARLINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks (-8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Mavericks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
SUU @ UTA
63 - 69
Feb 14, 2026
SUU @ UTA
78 - 73
Jan 29, 2026
SUU @ UTA
61 - 80
Jan 3, 2026
UTA @ SUU
86 - 77
Jan 30, 2025
SUU @ UTA
68 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+93.5% more
UT Arlington: 8.4
vs
Southern Utah: 4.3
Assists (L5)
+28.1% more
Southern Utah: 14.9
vs
UT Arlington: 10.7
Rebounding (L5)
+10.4% more
Southern Utah: 37.5
vs
UT Arlington: 33.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.5%
Southern Utah: 39.7%
vs
UT Arlington: 31.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SUU Score
65.0
61
UTA Score
80.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.2 / 39.7
35.0 / 25.0
Assists
10.7 / 14.9
14.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.9 / 4.2
10.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 49.0
43.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
75.5 / 76.7
73.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
33.6 / 37.5
53.0 / 28.0
Steals
8.4 / 4.3
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
14.3 / 13.7
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SUU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: 0.0
UTA
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.3
ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SUU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: 0.0
UTA
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 3.3
ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +3.5
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7%
Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
SUU
UTA
SUU
ML
50%
16-16
61%
19-12
62%
20-12
68%
21-10
ATS
59%
19-13
71%
22-9
62%
20-12
69%
22-10
TTL
53%
17-15
52%
16-15
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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