Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Golden Eagles APP @ USM

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

13-9  |  Road

70
FINAL
Thu, Jan 29 • 8:00 PM ET
Reed Green Coliseum
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

11-11  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Southern Miss)
MountaineersAPP (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesUSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

4.5%

Golden Eagles Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USM -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

APP By 1-7 points

3.3%

APP By 8-14 points

0.6%

USM By 1-7 points

12.2%

USM By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
67
APP STATE
84
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
70
APP STATE
72
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o134.5 Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 USM @ APP 86 - 73
Jan 29, 2026 APP @ USM 70 - 63
Feb 5, 2025 USM @ APP 58 - 60
Dec 31, 2022 APP @ USM 70 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +103.0% more
Southern Miss: 9.5 vs App State: 4.7
Turnovers (L5) +12.2% more
Southern Miss: 11.2 vs App State: 9.9
Free Throw % (L5) +3.2%
Southern Miss: 70.5% vs App State: 67.3%
Blocks (L5) +40.0% more
App State: 5.2 vs Southern Miss: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 67.0 70
USM Score 84.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.1 / 29.1 18.0 / 47.0
Assists 8.5 / 13.4 8.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.1 / 5.2 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 42.6 36.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 67.3 69.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 28.4 / 43.8 42.0 / 35.0
Steals 9.5 / 4.7 1.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 9.9 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
7%MONEY93%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
USM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
USM
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
APP
USM
APP
ML
53% 18-16
62% 20-12
73% 24-9
59% 19-13
ATS
59% 20-14
59% 19-13
74% 25-9
59% 19-13
TTL
68% 23-11
69% 22-10
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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