PENN STATE
NITTANY LIONSPSU
9-11 | Road
73
NORTHWESTERN
WILDCATSNU
9-11 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
NITTANY LIONS
100%
WILDCATS
0%
NITTANY LIONS
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
NORTHWESTERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Northwestern)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NU)
PSU By 1-7 points
12.2%
PSU By 8-14 points
4.0%
NU By 1-7 points
24.3%
NU By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Penn State
74
PENN STATE
Northwestern
83
NORTHWESTERN
Simulated Score
Penn State
68
PENN STATE
Northwestern
72
NORTHWESTERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats (-7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
PSU @ NU
66 - 76
Jan 29, 2026
PSU @ NU
73 - 94
Jan 2, 2025
NU @ PSU
80 - 84
Feb 11, 2024
PSU @ NU
63 - 68
Jan 10, 2024
NU @ PSU
76 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+211.0% more
Northwestern: 3.1
vs
Penn State: 1.0
Assists (L5)
+34.7% more
Northwestern: 16.2
vs
Penn State: 12.0
Turnovers (L5)
+32.6% more
Penn State: 11.7
vs
Northwestern: 7.9
Steals (L5)
+18.0% more
Penn State: 4.3
vs
Northwestern: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PSU Score
74.0
73
NU Score
83.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.9 / 34.1
55.0 / 33.0
Assists
16.2 / 12.0
30.0 / 19.0
Blocks
3.1 / 1.0
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
41.4 / 45.4
60.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
80.0 / 80.0
67.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
31.8 / 29.7
34.0 / 21.0
Steals
3.6 / 4.3
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
7.9 / 11.7
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -5.7
ATS +/-: -3.3
NU
Advantage
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -5.7
ATS +/-: -3.3
NU
Advantage
16-16-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.8
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
PSU
NU
PSU
ML
47%
16-18
72%
23-9
68%
23-11
56%
18-14
ATS
50%
17-17
72%
23-9
68%
23-11
56%
18-14
TTL
53%
18-16
66%
21-11
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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