WESTERN CAROLINA
CATAMOUNTSWCU
7-12 | Road
90
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
BUCCANEERSETSU
15-6 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
CATAMOUNTS
100%
BUCCANEERS
0%
CATAMOUNTS
--
BUCCANEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (East Tennessee State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ETSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETSU)
WCU By 1-7 points
16.9%
WCU By 8-14 points
6.8%
ETSU By 1-7 points
26.8%
ETSU By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Western Carolina
67
WESTERN CAROLINA
East Tennessee State
73
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
Western Carolina
71
WESTERN CAROLINA
East Tennessee State
76
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Buccaneers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Buccaneers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Buccaneers (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Buccaneers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
WCU @ ETSU
67 - 69
Jan 29, 2026
WCU @ ETSU
90 - 88
Jan 14, 2026
ETSU @ WCU
68 - 72
Feb 12, 2025
ETSU @ WCU
67 - 76
Jan 22, 2025
WCU @ ETSU
58 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+66.9% more
East Tennessee State: 8.6
vs
Western Carolina: 5.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+19.1%
East Tennessee State: 76.6%
vs
Western Carolina: 57.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
East Tennessee State: 50.5%
vs
Western Carolina: 46.2%
Rebounding (L5)
+12.6% more
Western Carolina: 41.3
vs
East Tennessee State: 36.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WCU Score
67.0
90
ETSU Score
73.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 36.3
36.0 / 42.0
Assists
14.6 / 13.7
14.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.8 / 3.7
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
50.5 / 46.2
49.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
76.6 / 57.5
80.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
36.1 / 41.3
28.0 / 34.0
Steals
8.6 / 5.2
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
8.2 / 9.3
6.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WCU
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +1.8
ETSU
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WCU
Advantage
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +1.8
ETSU
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
WCU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETSU
WCU
ETSU
WCU
ML
42%
14-19
63%
19-11
70%
23-10
76%
22-7
ATS
58%
19-14
73%
22-8
70%
23-10
77%
23-7
TTL
45%
15-18
67%
20-10
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
