Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Spartans @ Bears UNCG @ MER

UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

8-13  |  Road

77
FINAL
Thu, Jan 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Hawkins Arena
View Odds Details →

MERCER

BEARSMER

13-8  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
SPARTANS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
MERCER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Mercer)
SpartansUNCG (-3.5) 0 BearsMER (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

2.3%

Bears Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MER -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MER)

UNCG By 1-7 points

1.7%

UNCG By 8-14 points

0.3%

MER By 1-7 points

8.0%

MER By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
71
UNC GREENSBORO
91
MERCER
Simulated Score
68
UNC GREENSBORO
72
MERCER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 UNCG @ MER 77 - 95
Jan 17, 2026 MER @ UNCG 102 - 92
Feb 22, 2025 UNCG @ MER 78 - 61
Jan 22, 2025 MER @ UNCG 79 - 78
Feb 24, 2024 UNCG @ MER 72 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +75.0% more
Mercer: 8.1 vs UNC Greensboro: 4.6
Blocks (L5) +28.9% more
Mercer: 3.2 vs UNC Greensboro: 2.5
Turnovers (L5) +27.5% more
Mercer: 10.8 vs UNC Greensboro: 8.5
Rebounding (L5) +11.9% more
Mercer: 37.2 vs UNC Greensboro: 33.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCG Score 71.0 77
MER Score 91.0 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 35.1 40.0 / 29.0
Assists 14.2 / 13.0 16.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.2 / 2.5 5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 48.2 / 45.2 47.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 78.3 / 69.4 71.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 37.2 / 33.3 46.0 / 40.0
Steals 8.1 / 4.6 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 8.5 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCG
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
MER Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCG
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
MER Advantage
19-10-0 (65.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MER
UNCG
MER
UNCG
ML
55% 17-14
38% 13-21
71% 22-9
71% 24-10
ATS
58% 18-13
44% 15-19
71% 22-9
71% 24-10
TTL
61% 19-12
76% 26-8
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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