Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Chargers @ Lakers NHVN @ MERC

NEW HAVEN

CHARGERSNHVN

9-11  |  Road

51
FINAL
Thu, Jan 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Mercyhurst Athletic Center
View Odds Details →

MERCYHURST

LAKERSMERC

10-11  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
CHARGERS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
MERCYHURST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Mercyhurst)
ChargersNHVN (-3.5) 0 LakersMERC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

0.8%

Lakers Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MERC -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MERC)

NHVN By 1-7 points

0.6%

NHVN By 8-14 points

0.1%

MERC By 1-7 points

4.0%

MERC By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
55
NEW HAVEN
79
MERCYHURST
Simulated Score
68
NEW HAVEN
72
MERCYHURST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o122.5 Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u122.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 NHVN @ MERC 51 - 70
Jan 23, 2026 MERC @ NHVN 61 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +111.8% more
Mercyhurst: 3.6 vs New Haven: 1.7
Assists (L5) +28.6% more
Mercyhurst: 16.5 vs New Haven: 12.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.5%
Mercyhurst: 39.1% vs New Haven: 30.7%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.8%
Mercyhurst: 80.5% vs New Haven: 76.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NHVN Score 55.0 51
MERC Score 79.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.1 / 30.7 41.0 / 7.0
Assists 16.5 / 12.9 14.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.6 / 1.7 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 46.8 42.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 80.5 / 76.7 87.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 30.5 / 29.5 38.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.2 / 5.7 5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 13.1 4.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NHVN
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
MERC Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NHVN
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
MERC Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NHVN
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -3.5
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MERC
NHVN
MERC
NHVN
ML
59% 20-14
71% 22-9
79% 26-7
68% 21-10
ATS
62% 21-13
74% 23-8
79% 26-7
68% 21-10
TTL
53% 18-16
42% 13-18
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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