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COLORADO

BUFFALOESCOLO

12-8  |  Road

67
FINAL
Thu, Jan 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Hilton Coliseum
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

18-2  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
BUFFALOES
100%
📊
CYCLONES
0%
BUFFALOES --
CYCLONES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (Iowa State)
BuffaloesCOLO (-3.5) 0 CyclonesISU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buffaloes Cover

0.0%

Cyclones Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ISU -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

COLO By 1-7 points

0.0%

COLO By 8-14 points

0.0%

ISU By 1-7 points

0.5%

ISU By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
63
COLORADO
96
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
71
COLORADO
78
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cyclones Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cyclones Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cyclones (-16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim Cyclones (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 COLO @ ISU 67 - 97
Feb 18, 2025 COLO @ ISU 65 - 79
Dec 30, 2024 ISU @ COLO 79 - 69
Nov 27, 2024 COLO @ ISU 71 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +48.4% more
Iowa State: 12.2 vs Colorado: 8.2
Rebounding (L5) +25.6% more
Iowa State: 36.4 vs Colorado: 29.0
Steals (L5) +25.4% more
Iowa State: 9.1 vs Colorado: 7.3
Assists (L5) +14.0% more
Iowa State: 16.8 vs Colorado: 14.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COLO Score 63.0 67
ISU Score 96.0 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.8 / 38.3 48.0 / 29.0
Assists 16.8 / 14.8 19.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.0 / 2.0 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 44.4 61.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 66.9 / 74.4 71.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 36.4 / 29.0 38.0 / 22.0
Steals 9.1 / 7.3 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 8.2 9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLO
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
ISU Advantage
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLO
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
ISU Advantage
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
COLO
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +4.8
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
COLO
ISU
COLO
ML
57% 21-16
61% 20-13
76% 26-8
69% 22-10
ATS
62% 23-14
73% 24-9
76% 26-8
69% 22-10
TTL
54% 20-17
45% 15-18
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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