SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
REDHAWKSSEMO
11-10 | Road
78
WESTERN ILLINOIS
LEATHERNECKSWIU
4-17 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
REDHAWKS
100%
LEATHERNECKS
0%
REDHAWKS
--
LEATHERNECKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
191.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Western Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WIU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIU)
SEMO By 1-7 points
6.8%
SEMO By 8-14 points
1.7%
WIU By 1-7 points
18.6%
WIU By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Southeast Missouri State
89
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Western Illinois
102
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Southeast Missouri State
70
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Western Illinois
75
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Leathernecks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Leathernecks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Leathernecks (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Leathernecks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Win
Proj Total: 191.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 29, 2026
SEMO @ WIU
78 - 74
Jan 3, 2026
WIU @ SEMO
50 - 73
Feb 20, 2025
WIU @ SEMO
66 - 87
Jan 25, 2025
SEMO @ WIU
72 - 51
Feb 3, 2024
WIU @ SEMO
76 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+45.9% more
Southeast Missouri State: 13.8
vs
Western Illinois: 7.5
Turnovers (L5)
+15.2% more
Southeast Missouri State: 11.5
vs
Western Illinois: 9.7
Blocks (L5)
+9.8% more
Southeast Missouri State: 2.3
vs
Western Illinois: 2.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.2%
Southeast Missouri State: 31.7%
vs
Western Illinois: 27.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEMO Score
89.0
78
WIU Score
102.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.5 / 31.7
37.0 / 28.0
Assists
7.5 / 13.8
8.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.0 / 2.3
0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
38.8 / 42.9
40.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
64.7 / 64.0
69.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
33.2 / 32.2
26.0 / 33.0
Steals
5.5 / 5.7
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 11.5
7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEMO
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
WIU
5-26-0
(16.1%)
Margin: -11.9
ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEMO
Advantage
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
WIU
11-17-0
(39.3%)
Margin: -11.9
ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -2.4
WIU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6%
Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIU
SEMO
WIU
SEMO
ML
45%
14-17
64%
21-12
61%
19-12
50%
15-15
ATS
52%
16-15
67%
22-11
61%
19-12
50%
15-15
TTL
45%
14-17
58%
19-14
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
