SAMFORD
BULLDOGSSAM
10-11 | Road
73
FURMAN
PALADINSFUR
14-7 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
PALADINS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
PALADINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
FURMAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Furman)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FUR -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FUR)
SAM By 1-7 points
0.1%
SAM By 8-14 points
0.0%
FUR By 1-7 points
0.8%
FUR By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Samford
58
SAMFORD
Furman
89
FURMAN
Simulated Score
Samford
75
SAMFORD
Furman
79
FURMAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Paladins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Paladins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Paladins (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim
Paladins (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
FUR @ SAM
86 - 81
Jan 29, 2026
SAM @ FUR
73 - 78
Jan 14, 2026
FUR @ SAM
77 - 73
Mar 8, 2025
FUR @ SAM
95 - 78
Feb 19, 2025
FUR @ SAM
80 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+46.3% more
Furman: 9.4
vs
Samford: 6.4
Rebounding (L5)
+12.8% more
Furman: 36.4
vs
Samford: 32.3
Assists (L5)
+8.4% more
Furman: 17.3
vs
Samford: 15.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.0%
Furman: 79.3%
vs
Samford: 72.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAM Score
58.0
73
FUR Score
89.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 34.7
35.0 / 28.0
Assists
17.3 / 15.9
14.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.5 / 2.5
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 44.4
58.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
79.3 / 72.3
75.0 / 55.0
Rebounding
36.4 / 32.3
35.0 / 33.0
Steals
4.8 / 4.9
0.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
9.4 / 6.4
14.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAM
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
FUR
Advantage
22-13-0
(62.9%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAM
Advantage
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
FUR
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
FUR
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FUR
SAM
FUR
SAM
ML
71%
25-10
65%
20-11
62%
21-13
68%
21-10
ATS
63%
22-13
68%
21-10
62%
21-13
68%
21-10
TTL
57%
20-15
35%
11-20
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
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